Course Name Code Semester T+U Hours Credit ECTS
Forecasting Methods ENM 427 7 3 + 0 3 5
Precondition Courses
Recommended Optional Courses
Course Language Turkish
Course Level Bachelor's Degree
Course Type Optional
Course Coordinator Prof.Dr. BAYRAM TOPAL
Course Lecturers
Course Assistants Res. Assist. E.Elçin Günay
Course Category
Course Objective To make clear decisions on production planning and supply chain management, forecasting methods have essential role. The aim of this lesson is to provide information about the forecasting methods.
Course Content
# Course Learning Outcomes Teaching Methods Assessment Methods
1 Ability to realize the components of time series Lecture, Discussion, Drilland Practice, Testing, Homework,
2 Ability to realize the characteristics of time series Drilland Practice, Discussion, Question-Answer, Lecture, Homework, Testing,
3 Ability to realize forecast methods Lecture, Discussion, Drilland Practice, Testing, Homework,
4 Ability to choose appropriate forecast methods for the given data Drilland Practice, Question-Answer, Discussion, Lecture, Testing, Homework,
5 Ability to choose appropriate model for appropriate method Lecture, Discussion, Drilland Practice, Homework, Testing,
6 Investigate the stability of data Lecture, Drilland Practice, Discussion, Testing, Homework,
7 Ability to analyze the time series by computer programs Lecture, Drilland Practice, Demonstration, Testing, Homework,
Week Course Topics Preliminary Preparation
1 Forecast Methods
2 Properties of time series
3 Trend analyses
4 Decomposition of time series
5 Moving Average Method
6 Exponential smoothing Method
7 Seasonal Adjustment Methods and Exponential smoothing
8 Exponential smoothing Pegel classification
9 Midterm Exam
10 Characteristics of time series
11 ARIMA models for stabile series
12 Stabilitiy analysis of time series
13 ARIMA Models
14 Seasonel MARIMA models
Resources
Course Notes
Course Resources
Order Program Outcomes Level of Contribution
1 2 3 4 5
1 Engineering graduates with sufficient knowledge background on science and engineering subjects of their related area, and who are skillful in implementing theoretical and practical knowledge for modelling and solving engineering problems. X
2 Engineering graduates with skills in identifying, describing, formulating and solving complex engineering problems, and thus,deciding and implementing appropriate methods for analyzing and modelling. X
3 Engineering graduates with skills in designing a complex system, process, device or product under realistic constraints and conditions to meet specific requirements; for this purpose, skills in implementing modern design methods. X
4 Engineering graduates with skills in developing, selecting and implementing modern techniques and tools required for engineering applications as well as with skills in using information technologies effectively. X
5 Engineering graduates with skills in designing and conducting experiments, collecting data, analyzing and interpreting the results in order to evaluate engineering problems. X
6 Engineering graduates who are able to work within a one discipline or multi-discipline team,as well as who are able to work individually X
7 Engineering graduates who are able to effectively communicate orally and officially in Turkish Language as well as who knows at least one foreign language
8 Engineering graduates with motivation to life-long learning and having known significance of continuous education beyond undergraduate studies for science and technology X
9 Engineering graduates with well-structured responsibilities in profession and ethics X
10 Engineering graduates having knowledge about practices in professional life such as project management, risk management and change management, and who are aware of innovation and sustainable development. X
11 Engineering graduates having knowledge about universal and social effects of engineering applications on health, environment and safety, as well as having awareness for juridical consequences of engineering solutions. X
Evaluation System
Semester Studies Contribution Rate
1. Ara Sınav 50
1. Kısa Sınav 12
1. Ödev 12
2. Kısa Sınav 13
2. Ödev 13
Total 100
1. Yıl İçinin Başarıya 50
1. Final 50
Total 100
ECTS - Workload Activity Quantity Time (Hours) Total Workload (Hours)
Course Duration (Including the exam week: 16x Total course hours) 16 3 48
Hours for off-the-classroom study (Pre-study, practice) 16 1 16
Mid-terms 1 10 10
Quiz 2 5 10
Assignment 2 10 20
Final examination 1 10 10
Total Workload 114
Total Workload / 25 (Hours) 4.56
dersAKTSKredisi 5