| Ders Adı | Kodu | Yarıyıl | T+U Saat | Kredi | AKTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecastıng Methods | ENM 427 | 7 | 3 + 0 | 3 | 5 |
| Ön Koşul Dersleri | |
| Önerilen Seçmeli Dersler | |
| Dersin Dili | Türkçe |
| Dersin Seviyesi | Lisans |
| Dersin Türü | Seçmeli |
| Dersin Koordinatörü | Prof.Dr. SEMRA BORAN |
| Dersi Verenler | |
| Dersin Yardımcıları | Res. Assist. E.Elçin Günay |
| Dersin Kategorisi | Diğer |
| Dersin Amacı | To make clear decisions on production planning and supply chain management, forecasting methods have essential role. The aim of this lesson is to provide information about the forecasting methods. |
| Dersin İçeriği |
| # | Ders Öğrenme Çıktıları | Öğretim Yöntemleri | Ölçme Yöntemleri |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ability to realize the components of time series | Lecture, Discussion, Drilland Practice, | Testing, Homework, |
| 2 | Ability to realize the characteristics of time series | Drilland Practice, Discussion, Question-Answer, Lecture, | Homework, Testing, |
| 3 | Ability to realize forecast methods | Lecture, Discussion, Drilland Practice, | Testing, Homework, |
| 4 | Ability to choose appropriate forecast methods for the given data | Drilland Practice, Question-Answer, Discussion, Lecture, | Testing, Homework, |
| 5 | Ability to choose appropriate model for appropriate method | Lecture, Discussion, Drilland Practice, | Homework, Testing, |
| 6 | Investigate the stability of data | Lecture, Drilland Practice, Discussion, | Testing, Homework, |
| 7 | Ability to analyze the time series by computer programs | Lecture, Drilland Practice, Demonstration, | Testing, Homework, |
| Hafta | Ders Konuları | Ön Hazırlık |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forecast Methods | |
| 2 | Properties of time series | |
| 3 | Trend analyses | |
| 4 | Decomposition of time series | |
| 5 | Moving Average Method | |
| 6 | Exponential smoothing Method | |
| 7 | Seasonal Adjustment Methods and Exponential smoothing | |
| 8 | Exponential smoothing Pegel classification | |
| 9 | Midterm Exam | |
| 10 | Characteristics of time series | |
| 11 | ARIMA models for stabile series | |
| 12 | Stabilitiy analysis of time series | |
| 13 | ARIMA Models | |
| 14 | Seasonel MARIMA models |
| Kaynaklar | |
|---|---|
| Ders Notu | |
| Ders Kaynakları | |
| Sıra | Program Çıktıları | Katkı Düzeyi | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |||
| 1 | Engineering graduates with sufficient knowledge background on science and engineering subjects of their related area, and who are skillful in implementing theoretical and practical knowledge for modelling and solving engineering problems. | X | |||||
| 2 | Engineering graduates with skills in identifying, describing, formulating and solving complex engineering problems, and thus,deciding and implementing appropriate methods for analyzing and modelling. | X | |||||
| 3 | Engineering graduates with skills in designing a complex system, process, device or product under realistic constraints and conditions to meet specific requirements; for this purpose, skills in implementing modern design methods. | X | |||||
| 4 | Engineering graduates with skills in developing, selecting and implementing modern techniques and tools required for engineering applications as well as with skills in using information technologies effectively. | X | |||||
| 5 | Engineering graduates with skills in designing and conducting experiments, collecting data, analyzing and interpreting the results in order to evaluate engineering problems. | X | |||||
| 6 | Engineering graduates who are able to work within a one discipline or multi-discipline team,as well as who are able to work individually | X | |||||
| 7 | Engineering graduates who are able to effectively communicate orally and officially in Turkish Language as well as who knows at least one foreign language | ||||||
| 8 | Engineering graduates with motivation to life-long learning and having known significance of continuous education beyond undergraduate studies for science and technology | X | |||||
| 9 | Engineering graduates with well-structured responsibilities in profession and ethics | X | |||||
| 10 | Engineering graduates having knowledge about practices in professional life such as project management, risk management and change management, and who are aware of innovation and sustainable development. | X | |||||
| 11 | Engineering graduates having knowledge about universal and social effects of engineering applications on health, environment and safety, as well as having awareness for juridical consequences of engineering solutions. | X | |||||
| Değerlendirme Sistemi | |
|---|---|
| Yarıyıl Çalışmaları | Katkı Oranı |
| 1. Ara Sınav | 50 |
| 1. Kısa Sınav | 12 |
| 1. Ödev | 12 |
| 2. Kısa Sınav | 13 |
| 2. Ödev | 13 |
| Toplam | 100 |
| 1. Yıl İçinin Başarıya | 50 |
| 1. Final | 50 |
| Toplam | 100 |
| AKTS - İş Yükü Etkinlik | Sayı | Süre (Saat) | Toplam İş Yükü (Saat) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Course Duration (Including the exam week: 16x Total course hours) | 16 | 3 | 48 |
| Hours for off-the-classroom study (Pre-study, practice) | 16 | 1 | 16 |
| Mid-terms | 1 | 10 | 10 |
| Quiz | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| Assignment | 2 | 10 | 20 |
| Final examination | 1 | 10 | 10 |
| Toplam İş Yükü | 114 | ||
| Toplam İş Yükü / 25 (Saat) | 4,56 | ||
| Dersin AKTS Kredisi | 5 | ||