Ders Adı | Kodu | Yarıyıl | T+U Saat | Kredi | AKTS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Applıed Economıcal Prevısıon | IKT 450 | 8 | 3 + 0 | 3 | 5 |
Ön Koşul Dersleri | Statistics and econometrics knowledge |
Önerilen Seçmeli Dersler | |
Dersin Dili | Türkçe |
Dersin Seviyesi | Lisans |
Dersin Türü | Seçmeli |
Dersin Koordinatörü | Arş.Gör. FURKAN AÇIKGÖZ |
Dersi Verenler | Prof.Dr. AZİZ KUTLAR, |
Dersin Yardımcıları | Research assistants |
Dersin Kategorisi | Diğer |
Dersin Amacı | Introducing the structure of economic series, Getting the skill of forecasting the future by Box-Jenkins approach on the computer and by applying various forecast technics, (getting the skill of) comparing forecast accuracy. |
Dersin İçeriği | In this course the structure of time series, forecast methodology, analysises of time series with one variable, simple technics, AR(I)MA, analysises of time series with multiple variables; econometric reason-result, AR(I)MAX technics and SAS STAT, SAS ETS applications |
# | Ders Öğrenme Çıktıları | Öğretim Yöntemleri | Ölçme Yöntemleri |
---|---|---|---|
1 | it recognizes the pattern of serial | Lecture, Discussion, Demonstration, Case Study, | Testing, Homework, Project / Design, |
2 | it explains the structure forecasting techniques | Demonstration, Simulation, Self Study, Project Based Learning, | Testing, Oral Exam, Homework, Project / Design, |
3 | it applies technique which is appropriate for serial | Lecture, Question-Answer, Drilland Practice, Demonstration, Motivations to Show, Group Study, Self Study, | Testing, Homework, Project / Design, |
4 | it makes forecasting | Lecture, Question-Answer, Drilland Practice, Group Study, Brain Storming, Self Study, | Testing, Homework, Project / Design, |
5 | it controls stages of model estimates and tests the validity of the model | Lecture, Discussion, Group Study, Self Study, | Testing, Homework, Project / Design, |
6 | it forecasts | Lecture, Question-Answer, Discussion, Group Study, Self Study, Project Based Learning, | Testing, Homework, Project / Design, |
7 | it evaluates forecasting | Demonstration, Project Based Learning, | Testing, Homework, Project / Design, |
8 | it learns SAS STAT | Group Study, Self Study, Project Based Learning, | Testing, Project / Design, |
9 | it by using SAS estimate model | Lecture, Drilland Practice, Case Study, Project Based Learning, | Testing, Oral Exam, Homework, Project / Design, Performance Task, |
10 | it by using SAS foreecasts | ||
11 | it makes the prediction of economic event | ||
12 | it compares the accuracy of predictions | Discussion, Project Based Learning, | Testing, Homework, Project / Design, |
13 | it learns SAS ETS | Lecture, Discussion, Brain Storming, Self Study, Project Based Learning, | Testing, Oral Exam, Homework, Project / Design, |
14 | it knows advantage and disadvantage of forcasting techniques | ||
15 | it compares superiorities of forecasting techniques | Question-Answer, Discussion, Self Study, Project Based Learning, | Testing, Oral Exam, Homework, Project / Design, Performance Task, |
16 | |||
17 | |||
18 | |||
19 |
Hafta | Ders Konuları | Ön Hazırlık |
---|---|---|
1 | Forecast, the reason of application, application fields, forecast technics, forecast stages | |
2 | Section and time series, graphs and mathematical forms, parametric comments, SAS application | |
3 | Assesment criterions of forecast accuracy, SAS application | |
4 | Time series components | |
5 | Trend analysis and model forms, SAS application | |
6 | Moving mean method, SAS application | |
7 | Exponential smoothing, SAS application | |
8 | Simple and multiple regression, SAS application | |
9 | Midterm exam | |
10 | Time series econometrics, SAS application | |
11 | Box-Jenkins AR(I)MA Models | |
12 | AR(I)MA Method and Definition, SAS application | |
13 | ARMAX technic and definition, SAS application | |
14 | Dynamic regression models, SAS application |
Kaynaklar | |
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Ders Notu | |
Ders Kaynakları |
Sıra | Program Çıktıları | Katkı Düzeyi | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |||
1 | The students are gained the ability to look at the problems of daily life from a broader perspective. They gain the needed skills not only to understand the economic problems but also to construct a model and defend in meaningful way. | ||||||
1 | The students are gained the ability to look at the problems of daily life from a broader perspective. They gain the needed skills not only to understand the economic problems but also to construct a model and defend in meaningful way. | X | |||||
2 | They have knowledge about the microeconomic theory. | X | |||||
2 | They have knowledge about the microeconomic theory. | ||||||
3 | They have knowledge about the macroeconomic theory. | ||||||
3 | They have knowledge about the macroeconomic theory. | X | |||||
4 | They have knowledge about the international economic theory. | ||||||
4 | They have knowledge about the international economic theory. | X | |||||
5 | They have ability to use mathematical and statistical methods. | ||||||
5 | They have ability to use mathematical and statistical methods. | X | |||||
6 | They have ability to utilize fundamental econometric theories to provide economic problems. | X | |||||
6 | They have ability to utilize fundamental econometric theories to provide economic problems. | ||||||
7 | They are intended to be expert in one of non departmental fields that they choose from the list of marketing, management, human resources management, corporate finance, public administration, and tourism management. | ||||||
7 | They are intended to be expert in one of non departmental fields that they choose from the list of marketing, management, human resources management, corporate finance, public administration, and tourism management. | X | |||||
8 | They are intended to be expert in one of departmental fields that they choose from the list of public finance, agricultural, environmental, natural resources, labor economics, economics of industrial organization, economics of property rights, international finance, money and banking, economic growth and development. | ||||||
8 | They are intended to be expert in one of departmental fields that they choose from the list of public finance, agricultural, environmental, natural resources, labor economics, economics of industrial organization, economics of property rights, international finance, money and banking, economic growth and development. | X | |||||
9 | They have necessary knowledge of law and related skills that needed in both public and private sector. | ||||||
10 | They have necessary accountancy skills that needed in both public and private sector. | ||||||
11 | They have written and oral communication skills in a foreign language as well as in their native language. | ||||||
12 | They know how to use computer programs in both daily office usage and statistical data evaluations. | X | |||||
12 | They know how to use computer programs in both daily office usage and statistical data evaluations. |
Değerlendirme Sistemi | |
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Yarıyıl Çalışmaları | Katkı Oranı |
1. Ödev | 80 |
1. Kısa Sınav | 20 |
Toplam | 100 |
1. Yıl İçinin Başarıya | 40 |
1. Final | 60 |
Toplam | 100 |
AKTS - İş Yükü Etkinlik | Sayı | Süre (Saat) | Toplam İş Yükü (Saat) |
---|---|---|---|
Final examination | 1 | 10 | 10 |
Course Duration (Including the exam week: 16x Total course hours) | 16 | 3 | 48 |
Hours for off-the-classroom study (Pre-study, practice) | 16 | 2 | 32 |
Mid-terms | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Assignment | 1 | 4 | 4 |
Oral Examination | 1 | 4 | 4 |
Project / Design | 2 | 15 | 30 |
Performance Task (Laboratory) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Toplam İş Yükü | 131 | ||
Toplam İş Yükü / 25 (Saat) | 5,24 | ||
Dersin AKTS Kredisi | 5 |