Ders Adı Kodu Yarıyıl T+U Saat Kredi AKTS
Applıed Economıcal Prevısıon IKT 450 8 3 + 0 3 5
Ön Koşul Dersleri Statistics and econometrics knowledge
Önerilen Seçmeli Dersler
Dersin Dili Türkçe
Dersin Seviyesi Lisans
Dersin Türü Seçmeli
Dersin Koordinatörü Arş.Gör. FURKAN AÇIKGÖZ
Dersi Verenler Prof.Dr. AZİZ KUTLAR,
Dersin Yardımcıları Research assistants
Dersin Kategorisi Diğer
Dersin Amacı Introducing the structure of economic series, Getting the skill of forecasting the future by Box-Jenkins approach on the computer and by applying various forecast technics, (getting the skill of) comparing forecast accuracy.
Dersin İçeriği In this course the structure of time series, forecast methodology, analysises of time series with one variable, simple technics, AR(I)MA, analysises of time series with multiple variables; econometric reason-result, AR(I)MAX technics and SAS STAT, SAS ETS applications
# Ders Öğrenme Çıktıları Öğretim Yöntemleri Ölçme Yöntemleri
1 it recognizes the pattern of serial Lecture, Discussion, Demonstration, Case Study, Testing, Homework, Project / Design,
2 it explains the structure forecasting techniques Demonstration, Simulation, Self Study, Project Based Learning, Testing, Oral Exam, Homework, Project / Design,
3 it applies technique which is appropriate for serial Lecture, Question-Answer, Drilland Practice, Demonstration, Motivations to Show, Group Study, Self Study, Testing, Homework, Project / Design,
4 it makes forecasting Lecture, Question-Answer, Drilland Practice, Group Study, Brain Storming, Self Study, Testing, Homework, Project / Design,
5 it controls stages of model estimates and tests the validity of the model Lecture, Discussion, Group Study, Self Study, Testing, Homework, Project / Design,
6 it forecasts Lecture, Question-Answer, Discussion, Group Study, Self Study, Project Based Learning, Testing, Homework, Project / Design,
7 it evaluates forecasting Demonstration, Project Based Learning, Testing, Homework, Project / Design,
8 it learns SAS STAT Group Study, Self Study, Project Based Learning, Testing, Project / Design,
9 it by using SAS estimate model Lecture, Drilland Practice, Case Study, Project Based Learning, Testing, Oral Exam, Homework, Project / Design, Performance Task,
10 it by using SAS foreecasts
11 it makes the prediction of economic event
12 it compares the accuracy of predictions Discussion, Project Based Learning, Testing, Homework, Project / Design,
13 it learns SAS ETS Lecture, Discussion, Brain Storming, Self Study, Project Based Learning, Testing, Oral Exam, Homework, Project / Design,
14 it knows advantage and disadvantage of forcasting techniques
15 it compares superiorities of forecasting techniques Question-Answer, Discussion, Self Study, Project Based Learning, Testing, Oral Exam, Homework, Project / Design, Performance Task,
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Hafta Ders Konuları Ön Hazırlık
1 Forecast, the reason of application, application fields, forecast technics, forecast stages
2 Section and time series, graphs and mathematical forms, parametric comments, SAS application
3 Assesment criterions of forecast accuracy, SAS application
4 Time series components
5 Trend analysis and model forms, SAS application
6 Moving mean method, SAS application
7 Exponential smoothing, SAS application
8 Simple and multiple regression, SAS application
9 Midterm exam
10 Time series econometrics, SAS application
11 Box-Jenkins AR(I)MA Models
12 AR(I)MA Method and Definition, SAS application
13 ARMAX technic and definition, SAS application
14 Dynamic regression models, SAS application
Kaynaklar
Ders Notu
Ders Kaynakları
Sıra Program Çıktıları Katkı Düzeyi
1 2 3 4 5
1 The students are gained the ability to look at the problems of daily life from a broader perspective. They gain the needed skills not only to understand the economic problems but also to construct a model and defend in meaningful way.
1 The students are gained the ability to look at the problems of daily life from a broader perspective. They gain the needed skills not only to understand the economic problems but also to construct a model and defend in meaningful way. X
2 They have knowledge about the microeconomic theory. X
2 They have knowledge about the microeconomic theory.
3 They have knowledge about the macroeconomic theory.
3 They have knowledge about the macroeconomic theory. X
4 They have knowledge about the international economic theory.
4 They have knowledge about the international economic theory. X
5 They have ability to use mathematical and statistical methods.
5 They have ability to use mathematical and statistical methods. X
6 They have ability to utilize fundamental econometric theories to provide economic problems. X
6 They have ability to utilize fundamental econometric theories to provide economic problems.
7 They are intended to be expert in one of non departmental fields that they choose from the list of marketing, management, human resources management, corporate finance, public administration, and tourism management.
7 They are intended to be expert in one of non departmental fields that they choose from the list of marketing, management, human resources management, corporate finance, public administration, and tourism management. X
8 They are intended to be expert in one of departmental fields that they choose from the list of public finance, agricultural, environmental, natural resources, labor economics, economics of industrial organization, economics of property rights, international finance, money and banking, economic growth and development.
8 They are intended to be expert in one of departmental fields that they choose from the list of public finance, agricultural, environmental, natural resources, labor economics, economics of industrial organization, economics of property rights, international finance, money and banking, economic growth and development. X
9 They have necessary knowledge of law and related skills that needed in both public and private sector.
10 They have necessary accountancy skills that needed in both public and private sector.
11 They have written and oral communication skills in a foreign language as well as in their native language.
12 They know how to use computer programs in both daily office usage and statistical data evaluations. X
12 They know how to use computer programs in both daily office usage and statistical data evaluations.
Değerlendirme Sistemi
Yarıyıl Çalışmaları Katkı Oranı
1. Ödev 80
1. Kısa Sınav 20
Toplam 100
1. Yıl İçinin Başarıya 40
1. Final 60
Toplam 100
AKTS - İş Yükü Etkinlik Sayı Süre (Saat) Toplam İş Yükü (Saat)
Final examination 1 10 10
Course Duration (Including the exam week: 16x Total course hours) 16 3 48
Hours for off-the-classroom study (Pre-study, practice) 16 2 32
Mid-terms 1 2 2
Assignment 1 4 4
Oral Examination 1 4 4
Project / Design 2 15 30
Performance Task (Laboratory) 1 1 1
Toplam İş Yükü 131
Toplam İş Yükü / 25 (Saat) 5,24
Dersin AKTS Kredisi 5